Tuesday 7 October 2014

EARLY DAYS YET - THE RACE TO AVOID RELEGATION

RYMAN PREMIER DIVISION CURRENT TABLE - 17/10/13
BOTTOM NINE ONLY
cs - clean sheets, fts - games failed to score, GSPG & GCPG - average goals scored and conceded per game

POS TEAM P W D L GF GA GDPTS FORM WIN% CS FTS  GSPG GCPG
16 HARROW BOROUGH 13 3 4 6 17 24 -713 WLDWDL 23.08% 4 1.31  1.85 
17 HAMPTON & RICHMOND 11 3 3 5 10 15 -5 12 WLWLWD  27.27% 4 0.91  1.36 
18 WINGATE & FINCHLEY 12 3 3 6 15 21 -6 12 DWLLLW  25.00% 1.25  1.75 
19 METROPOLITAN POLICE 12 3 3 6 11 19 -8 12 LDLLLW  25.00% 6 0.92 1.58 
20 ENFIELD TOWN 13 3 3 7 18 30 -12 12 LDDLLL 23.08% 0 1.38  2.31 
21LEISTON133281324-1111DLLLDL 23.08%51.001.85 
22CARSHALTON ATHLETIC 1422101229-178LWLLDL 14.29%20.86 2.07 
23THAMESMEAD TOWN1321101135-247LLLLWL 15.38%0.85 2.69 
24CRAY WANDERERS122191243-317DLLLLW 16.67%1.00 3.58 

RYMAN PREMIER DIVISION CURRENT TABLE
BOTTOM NINE ONLY
cs - clean sheets, fts - games failed to score, GSPG & GCPG - average goals scored and conceded per game

POS TEAM P W D L GF GA GDPTS FORM WIN% CS FTS  GSPG GCPG
16 WITHAM TOWN 13 4 5 4 19 19 017 WLLWLW 30.77% 2 2 1.46 1.46
17 HAMPTON & RICHMOND 15 5 2 8 20 35 -15 17 DWWWLL 33.33% 2  4 1.33 2.33
18 BOGNOR REGIS TOWN 14 4 3 7 16 21 -5 15 LWWLWL 28.57% 1 2 1.14 1.50
19 ENFIELD TOWN  13 4 2 7 16 22 -6 14 WLLWLD 30.77% 3 4 1.23 1.69
20 HARROW BOROUGH 15 4 1 10 20 31 -11 13 LLWLLL 26.67% 3 2 1.33 2.07
21LEWES142571626-1011WDLDDL14.29%251.141.86
22BURY TOWN16259927-1811WLLLLL12.50%380.561.69 
23VCD ATHLETIC142481325-1210LLDDWD14.29%150.931.79
24AFC HORNCHURCH1531111022-1210WLWLLW20.00%2100.671.47

It's early days in the race to stay out of the bottom four relegation places in the Ryman Premier Division but here is a comparison of the league tables on Thursday 17th October 2013 and now. It's a worrying statistic for the teams in the bottom four that after 12, 13 and 14 games last season three of the bottom four did eventually finish in the final bottom four and were relegated. Cray Wanderers are currently struggling in Division One (North) in 22nd place with Thamesmead Town in 10th within sight of the play-offs. The Robins of Carshalton Athletic are currently in 14th place in Division One (South).

AFC Hornchurch have had a nightmare start to their campaign after losing in the play-off final versus Lowestoft Town last season. The Urchins were expected to do well and be up the top end of the division but after failing to score in 66.67% of their games so far they find themselves bottom of the table. Things are looking up though as the three wins they have recorded have been in the last six games so I forecast they will start to move up the table in the forthcoming months. Striker Reece Beckles-Richards has been recently recruited on loan from Woking in order to boost the side's scoring record of just 0.67 goals per game. It was the RBR who scored their winner at Bognor Regis Town (W 1-2) on Saturday.

Bury Town have the lowest win percentage in the division at only 12.50% and also have the lowest scoring record per game of only 0.56 goals per game. Their victories have both come at Ram Meadow against Canvey Island (W 1-0) and Billericay Town (W 2-1). They have also recruited some new players of late in midfielder Luke Hammond (from Needham Market), forwards Joe Benjamin (from Grays Athletic - played for Lowestoft Town and Billericay Town last season) and Ayrton Bevis (on loan from Cambridge United) along with 18 year old midfielder Jack Willbye on loan from Championship side Ispwich Town.

Lewes have also recorded only two wins (out of 14 games the same record as VCD Athletic) so far. Both have come at The Dripping Pan against Wingate and Finchley and Grays Athletic.

As an Enfield Town fan it's good to read that the record after thirteen games played is better by two points and the defensive record is better by eight goals. There has also been three clean sheets as opposed to none at this stage last season.

Hampton & Richmond Borough have the worst goal's conceded record in the division on over 2 per game. The Beavers have had a change of management when joint bosses Paul Barry and Darren Powell left the club following their 3-2 FA Cup defeat at VCD Athletic. They have been replaced by new manager Alan Dowson and form has improved  from a win percentage of 22.22% in the games before to 50.00% since the ex Kingstonian and Walton & Hersham boss has been in the hot seat.

As you can see from the below table the average win percentage to aim for is roughly 30.00% and above which means the teams currently in the bottom four need to start putting a few wins on the board to have more than a fighting chance at the business end of the season.

Average win% achieved to stay out of the bottom four 
note from 09/10 to 12/13 it was 22 team division so based on 18th placed side
from 13/14 based on 20th placed side
SEASON WIN % 
09/10 30.95%
10/11 21.49%
11/12 30.95%
12/13 28.57%
13/14 28.26%
AVERAGE 28.04%

Saturday 10th October fixtures for the current bottom nine teams
AFC HORNCHURCH V BURY TOWN
24th v 22nd. A real must win game for both sides. A home win would see The Urchins move above the Suffolk side. This game also pitches a record of no goals at home versus one goal scored away from home. 
DULWICH HAMLET V BOGNOR REGIS TOWN
A really difficult trip for The Rocks to The Hamlet who are in fourth position.
HAMPTON AND RICHMOND V VCD ATHLETIC
17th v 23rd. VCD Athletic need to start picking up points and wins. A home victory would see the gap widen at between the two sides. 
LEISTON V ENFIELD TOWN
Leiston are in fifth place and in contention for the play-offs so it's a really difficult trip for the Town who seem to have no luck at Victory Road. The results for three trips in the past reads L 6-1, L 3-1 and L 2-1.

Tuesday 14th October fixtures for the current bottom nine teams
CANVEY ISLAND V HARROW BOROUGH
Two wins from seven on the road for Harrow Borough - The Islanders have three wins from their seven home games and are currently in ninth place.
MET POLICE V HAMPTON AND RICHMOND
Hampton could be well out of the bottom section of the division with a victory against VCD on Saturday followed by a win at Imber Court

STATS AND FACTS ON THE CURRENT SEASON 
UNBEATEN AT HOME - MARGATE, MAIDSTONE UNITED, DULWICH HAMLET, MET POLICE
NO WINS AT HOME - AFC HORNCHURCH
UNBEATEN AWAY FROM HOME - LEATHERHEAD
NO WINS AWAY FROM HOME - BURY TOWN, LEWES, MET POLICE 
HIGHEST SCORERS - MAIDSTONE UNITED (37)
LOWEST SCORERS - BURY TOWN (9) 
HIGHEST SCORERS AT HOME - MAIDSTONE UNITED, DULWICH HAMLET (20)
LOWEST SCORERS AT HOME - AFC HORNCHURCH (0) 
HIGHEST SCORERS AWAY - MAIDSTONE UNITED (17)
LOWEST SCORERS AWAY - BURY TOWN (1)

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