The fact you can get lower odds of 250/1 (paddypower.com) that Alien Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on planet earth this year than New Zealand, top priced 3000/1 with expekt.com, to win the World Cup 2010 shows what confidence the bookmakers have in the All Whites.
Rarely do they get it wrong but with the gap closing between the top and lower rated teams the cold end asks is there a chance one of the outsiders may spring a surprise an actually get a positive result in winning or drawing a game?
I'm not going to get carried away and tip Honduras at 1000/1 with paddypower.com to win the competition but with most guides to the World Cup concentrating on the Spain's and Brazil's of this world the cold end will take a look at the minnows swimming amongst the big fish and try to predict if they will in fact cause an upset or two in the group stages.
The first team is New Zealand, who play in the tournament for the first time since Spain 1982. They qualified by winning the OFC Nations Cup finishing on top of the group which included Fiji (who inflicted New Zealand's only defeat in a 0-2 victory), New Caledonia and Vanuatu. They then beat 5th placed Asian Qualifying side in Bharain over 2 legs to earn the right to travel to South Africa.
They are placed in Group F alongside current Champions Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia. Being such huge underdogs in South Africa means gaining just a point in one of the group games would be considered success.
So, can the 3000/1 outsiders get a positive result?? They are best priced 10/1 to win in their first group game against Slovakia (4/9 - draw is 10/3) on the 15th June. In their second game versus Italy they are 20/1 for the win with a draw at 29/4 and The Azzurri very strong odds on at 1/6. In their last game against Paraguay they are back to 10/1 for the win, with a draw at 4/1 and a South American win odds on at 2/5.
New Zealand usually play a five man defensive formation including Captain Ryan Nelson of Blackburn Rovers, so may frustrate teams in the group games with Plymouth Argyle's Rory Fallon, Middlesborough's Chris Killen and West Bromich Albion's Chris Woods being among the forward line.
The next outsider team is the unknown quantity of North Korea who are best priced at 2,000/1 to win the competition. Only a handful of the squad play outside of their native country including Jong Tae-Se who was born in South Korea and plays in the Japanese J-League for Kawaski Frontale.
The mystery men are in the so called group of death along with Ivory Coast, Brazil and Portugal. The bookies rate them as big underdogs in all of their games. Best priced as 33/1 against Brazil, 20/1 versus Portugal and 14/1 versus the Ivory Coast.
There is one other team priced in four figures to lift the trophy in Honduras at 1,000/1 with paddypower.com, There is a vast difference in odds as skybet.com only have Los Catrachos at 350/1. Reinaldo Rivera's team are drawn in Group H and face Spain, Switzerland and Chile. They are best priced at 5/1 in their opener agianst Chile, 20/1 agianst Spain and 15/4 in their 3rd group game versus The Swiss.
Their most well known player has to be Wilson Palacios of Tottenham Hotspur along with Maynor Figueroa (Wigan Athletic), Julio Cesar De Leon (currently playing for Torino in Italy, Nicknamed 'Rambo' and considered a free-kick speicialist) and national idol centre forward Carlos Pavon who has scored 57 goals in 96 caps for his country.
So, out of the three teams rated in four figures (1,000/1 +), the bookies think Honduras have the best chance of getting a result. The cold end, looking at the New Zealand team and the fact they usually play five at the back, thinks they maybe the team to spring a surprise by getting at least a point in the games versus Paraguay or Slovakia. Is it beyond possibilty that even Italy who are notorious slow starters at big competitions may stumble against Ricki Herbert's team? They only conceded six goals in the eight qualifying games they played indicating they are tough to break down.
People would be right to argue the World Cup is a different level but which pundit would of predicted Cameroon would of beaten Argentina in 1990, Senegal would of beaten France in 2002, Trinidad and Tobago would of held Sweden to a 0-0 in their opening group game of 2006 or the Republic of Ireland would of beaten Italy 1-0 in 1994.
There will be at least one shock result this summer with everyone wanting to pick the one game that will bag them a big win at the Bookmakers and with just under 3 weeks to go now until hosts South Africa kick off agianst Mexico on Friday 11th June World Cup Mania is about to start.
The bookies think you may be better off investing your hard earned cash on Alien life being confirmed this year at 250/1 but the cold end loves an underdog so will be routing and possibly backing New Zealand in their games versus Slovakia and Paraguay.
COME ON ENGLAND!!!!
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