Thursday 27 December 2018

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE - THE BATTLE TO BEAT THE DROP

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE CURRENT TABLE - BOTTOM EIGHT ONLY
POS TEAM P GD PTS PPG
17 BROMLEY 25 -8 27 1.08
18 HAVANT & WATERLOOVILLE 26 -9 26 1.00
19 ALDERSHOT TOWN  26 -20 26 1.00
20 DOVER ATHLETIC  26 -18 24 0.92
21 MAIDENHEAD UNITED  25 -22 24 0.96
22 CHESTERFIELD  25 -10 23 0.92
23 MAIDSTONE UNITED  25 -19 19 0.76
24 BRAINTREE TOWN  26 -25 15 0.58

Braintree Town are bottom of the Vanarama National Division with just three wins recorded in their twenty-six games played which came 0-1 away at Gateshead along with victories over fellow relegation fighter's Dover Athletic (2-1 at home) and Bromley (2-4 away). Since their win against The Ravens on Tuesday 30th October they have only picked up two points from a potential twenty-four on offer. Encouragingly these points were picked up against Sutton United and Boreham Wood who both could get into the play-offs being placed 8th and 11th at present. 

It's going to be very difficult for The Iron to get out of the bottom four and even their most ardent fan will know this. There are still twenty games to play so it's never over and until it's over but if we look at the average number of points required to finish in twentieth place over the past four seasons (see table below) it works out at 48.50 which if we round down to 48 they will need to pick up 33 points from their last twenty games which equates to 1.65 points per game compared to their 0.58 ppg at present. 

TWENTIETH PLACED TEAM FOR LAST THREE SEASONS
SEASONTEAMPGDPTSTEAM BELOW (PTS)
14/15WELLING UNITED 46 -21 45 ALFRETON (45) 
15/16GUISELEY 46-2349FC HALIFAX (48)
16/17GUISELEY 46-1751YORK CITY (50)
17/18BARROW 46-1249WOKING (48) 

It's been a very difficult season for Chesterfield who bookmakers rated as 7/1 second favourites for the title in June following their relegation from the football league. These odds have now lengthened to 2500/1 with some firms as The Spireites are third from bottom with only four wins from twenty-five league games played. They are in real danger of being relegated for a third successive season - their 0-4 home defeat to Solihull Moors yesterday saw a small group of fans enter the pitch and others in the stands and outside of the ground protest about the current running of the club. It was only four seasons ago in 2014/15 they finished in 6th place in League One!  

Martin Allen's side have drawn eleven of their games which is the most in the division at present so that is a plus in that they are not easily beaten. They will need to improve on their goal-scoring which at just 21 is the worst in the league. 


CURRENT FORM OF BOTTOM EIGHT 
TEAM P GD PTS
DOVER ATHLETIC  +3  13 
HAVANT & WATERLOOVILLE  -1 
MAIDENHEAD UNITED   -1 
CHESTERFIELD   -4 
BROMLEY   -6 4
BRAINTREE TOWN   6 -7 
ALDERSHOT TOWN   -8
MAIDSTONE UNITED   -9 

Dover Athletic have had a real good run of form of late having appointed Andy Hessenthaler as boss on Monday 8th October. He rejoined the club he won back-to-back promotions with from Eastleigh and has won five in eleven games so far winning seventeen points which is much better than the seven points from their opening fifteen games they recorded. 

Maidstone United are another team in real danger having picked up just one point from their last six league games played with their 3-1 Boxing Day defeat to Kent and relegation rivals Dover Athletic a real disappointing result for them. The Stones are missing the goals of Blair Turgott who scored 14 times prior to being ruled out with a knee injury for up to six weeks at the beginning of December.  

With just four points currently separating 17th to 22nd place and teams just above Bromley such as Barnet, Hartlepool United and Dagenham & Redbridge still not safe it's going to be an interesting second half of the season. 

Looking towards the top of the division it's Leyton Orient who are currently top but they lost to Dagenham and Redbridge on Boxing Day with Wrexham moving into second place thanks to a 5-1 win over Salford City in front of a massive 8,283 crowd at The Racecourse Ground. The return games are on New Years Day with the Leyton Orient v Salford City game on Saturday 5th January probably the biggest of the season so far. 

FORTHCOMING FIXTURES 

Saturday 29th December 
Barrow v Salford City
Boreham Wood v Maidstone United 
Chesterfield v Hartlepool United 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Barnet 
Dover Athletic v Leyton Orient 
Ebbsfleet United v Eastleigh 
Gateshead v FC Halifax Town 
Harrogate Town v AFC Fylde 
Havant & Waterlooville v Bromley 
Maidenhead United v Braintree Town 
Sutton United v Aldershot Town 
Wrexham v Solihull Moors 

Tuesday 1st January
AFC Fylde v Barrow 
Aldershot Town v Maidenhead United 
Barnet v Boreham Wood 
Braintree Town v Ebbsfleet United 
Bromley v Sutton United 7.45pm
Eastleigh v Havant & Waterlooville
FC Halifax Town v Harrogate Town 
Hartlepool United v Gateshead 
Leyton Orient v Dagenham & Redbridge 
Maidstone United v Dover Athletic 
Salford City v Wrexham 
Solihull Moors v Chesterfield 

Saturday 5th January 
Bromley v AFC Fylde
Chesterfield v Ebbsfleet United 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Boreham Wood 
FC Halifax Town v Braintree Town 
Gateshead v Maidenhead United 
Hartlepool United v Maidstone United 
Havant & Waterlooville v Barrow 
Leyton Orient v Salford City 
Solihull Moors v Eastleigh 
Sutton United v Harrogate Town 
Wrexham v Dover Athletic

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