Saturday, 8 January 2011

THE FOOTBALL LEAGUE - WHO FACES THE DREADED DROP??

BOTTOM FOUR OF LEAGUE TWO OVER PREVIOUS SEASONS
2009/10               HOME         AWAY
                   P  W D  L GA GA W D L  GF GA  GD PTS
21 Barnet          46 8 10 5 30 18 4 2 17 17 45 -16 48 
22 Cheltenham Town 46 5 8 10 34 38 5 10 8 20 33 -17 48 
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23 Grimsby Town    46 4 9 10 25 36 5 8 10 20 35 -26 44 
24 Darlington      46 3 3 17 14 40 5 3 15 19 47 -54 30 

2008/09               HOME          AWAY
                   P  W  D  L GF GA W D  L GF GA  GD PTS 
21 AFC Bournemouth 46 11 6  6 28 15 6 6 11 31 36   8 46 
22 Grimsby Town    46 6  7 10 31 28 3 7 13 20 41 -18 41 
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23 Chester City    46 4  7 12 24 34 4 6 13 19 47 -38 37 
24 Luton Town      46 7  8  8 34 34 6 9  8 24 31 - 7 26 

2007/08              HOME         AWAY
                  P  W D  L GF GA W  D L  GF GA  GD PTS
21 Notts County   46 8 5 10 19 23 2 13  8 18 30 -16 48 
22 Chester City   46 5 5 13 21 30 7  6 10 30 38 -17 47 
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23 Mansfield Town 46 6 3 14 30 39 5  6 12 18 29 -20 42 
24 Wrexham        46 6 7 10 16 28 4  3 16 22 42 -32 40 

2006/07                 HOME         AWAY
                     P  W D  L GF GA W D  L GF GA  GD PTS
21 Bury              46 4 7 12 22 35 9 4 10 24 26 -15 50 
22 Macclesfield Town 46 8 7  8 36 34 4 5 14 19 43 -22 48 
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23 Boston United     46 9 5  9 29 32 3 5 15 22 48 -29 36 
24 Torquay United    46 5 8 10 19 22 2 6 15 17 41 -27 35 

2005/06                  HOME          AWAY
                      P  W  D  L GF GA W D  L GF GA  GD PTS
21 Notts County       46 7 11  5 30 26 5 5 13 18 37 -15 52 
22 Stockport County   46 7 11  5 34 29 4 8 11 23 49 -21 52 
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23 Oxford United      46 7  7  9 25 30 4 9 10 18 27 -14 49 
24 Rushden & Diamonds 46 8  5 10 25 31 3 7 13 19 45 -32 45 

2004/05                      HOME        AWAY
                          P  W D L GF GA  W  D  L GF GA  GD PTS
21 Shrewsbury Town        46 9 7  7 34 18 2  9 12 14 35 - 5 49 
22 Rushden & Diamonds     46 8 6  9 29 29 2  8 13 13 34 -21 44 
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23 Cambridge United       46 7 6 10 22 27 1 10 12 17 35 -23 40 
24 Kidderminster Harriers 46 6 6 11 21 39 4  2 17 18 46 -46 38 

2003/04                  HOME        AWAY
                      P  W D  L GF GA W D  L GF GA  GD PTS
21 Rochdale           46 7  8 8 28 26 5 6 12 21 32 - 9 50 
22 Scunthorpe United  46 7 10 6 36 27 4 6 13 33 45 - 3 49 
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23 Carlisle United    46 8 5 10 23 27 4 4 15 23 42 -23 45 
24 York City          46 7 6 10 22 29 3 8 12 13 37 -31 44 

2002/03               HOME        AWAY
                   P  W D  L GF GA W D  L GF GA PTS
21 Swansea City    46 9 6  8 28 25 3 7 13 20 40 49 
22 Carlisle United 46 5 5 13 26 40 8 5 10 26 38 49 
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23 Exeter City     46 7 7  9 24 31 4 8 11 26 33 48 
24 Shrewsbury Town 46 5 6 12 34 39 4 8 11 28 53 41 

Two up and two down between the Football League and the Conference now known as the Blue Square Premier in now into it's ninth season. This years fight to beat the drop is now fully in swing with many teams within range of the dreaded drop zone. The advent of two up from non-league's top division has certainly made the league much stronger and if it wasn't before it now certainly is considered as Division Five by most football fans.

As you can see from the table's above which show the bottom four since the 2002/03 season many teams have just scrapped over the line to safety and others have suffered relegation out of the football league by only a few points. How things have changed for Swansea City who escaped going down by just one point at the end of the 2002/03 season? Now just eight seasons later and a move from the Vetch Field to The Liberty Stadium The Swans are pushing for promotion to the Premier League.

The average points team's have required to be safe over the eight seasons stands at 43.63 (we'll round it up to 44) with the lowest amount being 37 in 06/07 and the highest being 50 in 05/06 when Oxford United were unlucky to be relegated with a massive total of 49 points.

So who is facing the trap door this year??

NPOWER FOOTBALL LEAGUE TWO CURRENT TABLE (BOTTOM 12 ONLY)
                         HOME        AWAY   
                      P  W D L GF GA W D L GF GA  GD PTS   ODDS*   PRTBS#   
13 Stevenage          21 3 6 2 14 12 3 3 4 10  7   5 27    20/1    17 
14 Northampton        22 5 3 2 15 10 2 3 7 10 22 - 7 27    20/1    17
15 Southend           21 3 2 4 10 13 4 3 5 14 12 - 1 26    14/1    18
16 Macclesfield       22 4 1 6 12 18 3 4 4 14 16 - 8 26     8/1    18
17 Burton Albion      21 5 4 3 18 12 1 3 5  9 13   2 25    14/1    19
18 Accrington Stanley 21 4 3 2 21 14 1 7 4  9 18 - 2 25     7/1    19
19 Aldershot          21 2 3 4  7 12 4 4 4 12 14 - 7 25    14/1    19
20 Morecambe          21 3 5 4 15 14 3 1 5 11 17 - 5 24     6/1    20
21 Stockport          23 1 6 4 11 26 4 2 6 12 20 -23 23     6/4    21
22 Lincoln City       20 3 3 5  8 15 2 1 6  8 15 -14 19     3/1    25
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23 Hereford           22 0 6 4  9 17 4 1 7 15 24 -17 19     6/4    25 
24 Barnet             23 5 2 6 17 19 0 2 8 11 27 -18 19    11/10   25

* denotes current odds for relegation with coral.com

# denotes "points required to be safe"...that based on the average of 44. 

CURRENT FORM TABLE OVER LAST SIX GAMES (BOTTOM TWELVE TEAMS ONLY)
                       P W D L   CS FTS  GF GA GD PTS
1. Northampton Town    6 3 1 2   2  1    8  9  -1  10 
2. Accrington Stanley  6 2 3 1   1  1    7  7   0  9 
3. Southend United     6 2 2 2   2  0    8  7  -1  8
4. Morecambe           6 2 1 3   2  0    7  7   0  7
5. Burton Albion       6 2 1 3   1  1    8  9  -1  7 
6. Aldershot           6 2 0 4   0  3    5  9  -4  6 
7. Lincoln City        6 2 0 4   0  2    7  13 -6  6
8. Stevenage           6 1 2 3   0  3    6  7  -1  5
9. Macclesfield Town   6 1 1 4   1  2    6  12 -6  4
10.Herford United      6 1 1 4   0  2    6  13 -7  4
11.Stockport County    6 1 1 4   0  3    7  17 -10 4
12.Barnet              6 1 0 5   1  0    8  13 -5  3 

cs denotes number of matches with clean sheets
fts dentoes number of matches failed to score 

It's not been a good Christmas and New Year period for Enfield FC's old rivals Barnet who suffered two defeats at home to team's just above them in the table (Stockport County and Aldershot Town) and then went to lose the A1 Derby game at Stevenage FC. The 4-2 defeat at the Lamex Stadium could prove pivatol as a win for the Bee's would of put them on 22 points outside of the relegation zone and left only three points between them and their Hertfordshire rivals. It was a real six-pointer game for Graham Westley's side as the win puts them now on 27 points with Barnet on the bottom of the league on goal-difference from Hereford United and Lincoln City.

Mark Stimson has also left his post as manager over the festive period and Paul Fairclough has taken control on a temporary basis. The Bee's are half way through their league season having played 23 games and stand currently on 19 points gained out of the 69 on offer so far. If 44 points is the safety marker then they need to collect 25 points from the reamining 69 on offer which of course is not impossible. If you break this down even more they have 30 home points still up for grabs and 39 away points.

One thing the new manager will have to address is the terrible form away from Underhill which has seen them get just two draws (at Torquay and Morecambe) out of ten games so far.

They do have the services of Izzale McLeod who Charlton Athletic paid MK Dons £1.1 million for in 2007. McLeod's, who shot to fame scoring goals for the Dons, move to South London didn't work out and after loan spells with Peterborough United, Millwall and Colchester United he signed full time at Underhill for this season.

Barnet are joined in the bottom two by Hereford United who also have a forward whose move to Charlton Athletic didn't go so well. Stuart Fleetwood who started his career at Cardiff before playing for Hereford United in 2006/07 then went on to have a great season with Forest Green Rovers to earn a move to The Valley. His move to Charlton didn't work out and he now finds himself back at Edgar Street hoping to score the goals that will move The Bulls up the league and out of the relegation zone. Their 1-2 victory at Aldershot Town could prove very important come the end of the season.

Fourth from bottom Stockport County have also recently parted company with their manager when Paul Simpson left Edgeley Park yesterday. Looking at the bottom half of the table the only clubs to have changed managers this season are those in the current bottom four. Could this be a lesson for club chairman to have more patience with their managers?? 

The bookies clearly make The Bee's favourites to go down as they are currently bottom but any team with a run of bad form can easily drop down the into the relegation zone.

For example Macclesfield Town only have one win in six games and are leaking goals at the back, their game against Barnet on the 22nd January at Moss Rose looks to be a very important game for both sides.

And Stevenage's four goal haul against Barnet accounted for 66% of their goals scored in the last six games and it was their only win. They don't score many but they don't let in many either losing the three games they have suffered defeats in the last six games by only 1 goal to NIL. They should do enough to be comfortable by the end of the season.

Two big relegation rivals face a day off in their league campaign today but still face each other. Sincil Bank sees The Imps take on The Bulls in the rearranged second round FA Cup replay. The winners are scheduled to travel to another League Two side in Wycombe Wanderers in the third round on Tueaday night. 

Below are some of the key forthcoming relegation games. By the time Barnet welcome Lincoln City to Underhill at the end of February the bottom of the league could be completely different to how it is now.

League Two Relegation battles - Key forthcoming games

Saturday 15th January
Hereford United v Stockport County

Saturday 22nd January
Macclesfield Town v Barnet
Stockport County v Lincoln City

Saturday 29th January
Morecambe v Macclesfield Town

Tuesday 1st February
Aldershot Town v Barnet

Saturday 5th February
Hereford United v Lincoln City

Tuesday 8th February
Hereford United v Macclesfield Town

Saturday 12th February
Lincoln City v Morecambe

Tuesday 15th February
Aldershot Town v Lincoln City

Saturday 19th February
Stockport County v Macclesfield Town

Tuesday 22nd February
Macclesfield Town v Morecambe

Saturday 26th Febuary
Barnet v Lincoln City

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