WOLVES, WEST HAM UNITED AND WIGAN ATHLETIC??
IT'S TOO CLOSE TO CALL!
Every football fan loves a relegation six pointer and it's the results of which sometimes decide who unlucky side goes down and which club stays up by the skin of their teeth. With this in mind the cold end has looked into the Barclay's FA Premier League race to beat the drop which could help you to decide who is going down.
For any West Ham United fan the current FA Premier League table makes grim reading as the Hammers are bottom of the table and firmly in the battle to avoid the dreaded drop into the Championship. The cold end may be able to bring some good news to supporters of the East London side with the following table as West Ham are top of the league!!
FA PREMIER LEAGUE CURRENT BOTTOM SIX LEAGUE TABLE only includes fixtures played against each other so far HOME AWAY P W D L GF GA P W D L GF GA GD PTS ODDS* 1. West Ham United 2 1 1 0 4 1 4 1 2 1 6 7 2 9 4/5 2. Aston Villa 2 1 1 0 3 0 2 1 1 0 3 2 4 8 7/2 3. Fulham 5 2 2 1 7 6 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 7 11/4 4. Wigan Athletic 1 1 0 0 2 0 4 1 1 2 3 6 -1 7 11/10 5. Birmingham City 2 0 2 0 2 2 3 0 2 1 1 2 -1 4 4/1 6. Wolves 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 0 0 3 2 6 -4 4 8/13 * denotes current odds with skybet.com for relegation POINTS PERCENTAGE TABLE FROM PLAYING TEAMS IN THE CURRENT BOTTOM SIX PA GAINED % 1. Aston Villa 12 8 66.66 2. Fulham 18 7 55.55 3. West Ham United 18 9 50.00 4. Wigan Athletic 15 7 46.66 5. Birmingham City 15 4 26.66 6. Wolves 18 4 22.22 PA denotes points available BOTTOM SIX VERSUS TOP FIVE CURRENT TABLE Who raises their game against the top teams?? HOME AWAY P W D L GF GA P W D L GF GA GD PTS 1. Birmingham City 3 1 2 0 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 2 0 6 2. West Ham United 3 1 0 2 3 6 2 0 0 2 0 4 - 7 6 3. Wigan Athletic 3 0 1 2 2 10 2 1 0 1 1 2 - 9 4 4. Wolves 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 0 0 3 2 7 - 6 3 5. Aston Villa 4 0 2 2 5 8 2 0 0 2 1 6 - 8 2 6. Fulham 3 0 1 2 4 8 2 0 0 2 1 3 - 6 1
From the above tables it's the cold end's opinion that Fulham, who up until their unexpected victory at Stoke City had terrible form away from Craven Cottage, may be in more trouble than bottom of the table West Ham United. The Cottagers still have to travel to play Aston Villa, Wigan Athletic, Birmingham City and Wolverhampton Wanderers whereas the Hammers only have to go to Wigan Athletic on their last away game of the season and play three of their relegation rivals at home where their form is better.
If Avram Grant's side can gain points from these three home games (Wolves, Birmingham City and Aston Villa visit) it may bring them out of the relegation zone. As you can see the average points total for the last five seasons to avoid relegation has been 36.4. The Hammers also have home games against Liverpool, Stoke City, Blackburn Rovers and Sunderland, if they get something from these games too it would take them somewhere near that magical total.
Number of points required to avoid relegation table
2005/06 38
2006/07 38
2007/08 36
2008/09 35
2009/10 35
Average - 36.4
Wigan Athletic seem to be in the same position as West Ham United with only one game played against the bottom six at the DW Stadium which they won. If they could get a few wins from these games after the encouraging 2-2 draw against Arsenal all is not lost for the Latics either.
For Wolverhampton Wanderer's fans it looks grim despite their famous victory at Anfield on Wednesday night. They are the odds on favourites for relegation and out of the eighteen points they could of gained from playing sides in the bottom six they have only got four (equates to 22.22% as the table shows). Their clash with West Ham United at The Boleyn Ground on Saturday now looks to be a huge game as a win for either side would possible lift them out of the drop zone depending on how other results go. A must win game for both sides!!!
The aim for most of the club's in the bottom half at the start of the season is to beat the drop and what is amazing is that Blackpool who were most pundits choices to go down are currently on 25 points. Just four wins from their remaining 21games would maybe be enough to keep them up although I think most clubs will be aiming for at least 40 points to beat the drop. In 1992/93 Crystal Palace were very unlucky to be relegated on a total of 49 points with Oldham Athletic escaping on goal difference. That total would of got The Eagles to 11th place last season,
With just twelve points covering sixth placed Bolton Wanderers and bottom of the table West Ham United it is just not the current bottom six who will be worrying about the 'R' word as any number of teams can be drawn into the fight with only a few bad results.
Everton, Liverpool and Newcastle are all on 22 points at present just 3 points away from the relegation zone so could it be a big name who goes down at the end of the season??
The cold end has (just for fun with it's anorak firmly fitted) worked out the percentages of points gained by the current bottom six against each other, the top five, and teams from 6th position to 14th. This has been cross referenced against the number of games each club has left against those teams to work out their final predicted points total which are as follows -
Aston Villa 43
Fulham 41
Birmingham City 40
Wigan Athletic 40
West Ham United 32
Wolves 28
Regular readers will know how good the cold end is at predicting and tipping so the above will probably be totally wrong. Maybe our crystal ball will be correct or I think it might be way off the mark. We'll just have to wait and see??
What will be key in the quest to beat relegation will be the forthcoming transfer window with many fans across the country face some nervous Saturday afternoons and midweek games in the next few months.
KEY RELEGATION BATTLE FIXTURES FOR JANUARY
Saturday 1st January
West Ham United v Wolves
If you ever needed to define a relegation six-pointer this game is that! A draw will be no good for either team.
Tuesday 4th January
Fulham v West Brom
If Fulham win this one it will bring West Brom further down the league.
Wednesday 5th January
Newcastle United v West Ham United
Not exactly a must win game for the Toon but if the Hammers get a win it will pull Alan Pardew's side down closer to the drop zone.
Saturday 15th January
Wigan v Fulham
Another six pointer
Sunday 16th January
Birmingham City v Aston Villa
Not just local bragging rights up for grabs in this game. Both teams need points to pull away from the bottom of the league.
Tuesday 25th January
Wigan Athletic v Aston Villa
If the result of the Birmingham derby goes against Villa they could be deep in relegation trouble by the time this game comes round??
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