Here we have a statistical look at which teams have a real chance. The below table shows the teams who have finished in fifth place (the lowest place a team can finish to qualify) since the creation of the division in the 06/07 season. As you can see teams will have to aim for an average win percentage just over 50%, a loss percentage of around 25% and a points per game of around 1.82.
Here is the current Ryman Division One (North) table top twelve -
|10||SOHAM TOWN RANGERS||30||14||5||11||56||56||0||47||46.67%||36.67%||1.57|
It is a fact that no team that has lost more than 12 games over a 46, 42 and 40 game season has never finished in the top five so this would take Tilbury and Aveley out of the play off picture with Soham Town Rangers currently on 11 defeats very close to the 12 game cut off point.
These statistics are there to proved wrong so we'll see what happens. Maybe one of the best ways to look at the chances is at the loss percentage based on a forty-six game season if teams are undefeated until the end of the season.
|SOHAM TOWN RANGERS||11||23.91%|
So based on this table and the fact the average loss percentage is 24.04% with the worst being 28.58% the following can possibly be said -
Harlow Town and Needham Market are the title favourites with the twelve point gap between them and third place. It is highly likely these teams will be in the top two come the end of the season.
Wroxham, Brentwood Town, Thurrock, and Ware all have a great chance of getting into the play-offs.
AFC Sudbury, Dereham Town, Brightlingsea Regent and Soham Town Rangers have an outside chance of reaching the top five but probably can't afford to lose more than two games for the remainder of the season.
Aveley and Tilbury already have a loss percentage of 28.26% based on 46 games played so it'll be a real surprise if they reach the top five. They really can't afford to lose any more games which is a big ask!
FORTHCOMING KEY FIXTURES
Saturday 31st January
BRENTWOOD TOWN v AFC SUDBURY
4th v 5th in the table. This is a real must win game for AFC Sudbury
Tuesday 3rd February
AFC SUDBURY v WARE
The big games keep coming for the Suffolk side. Both teams need a win in this game
TILBURY v NEEDHAM MARKET
A really interesting game as the title contenders travel to The Dockers who are currently one of the form sides alongside Needham and Harlow
Saturday 7th February
AFC SUDBURY v HARLOW TOWN
A big week for AFC Sudbury finishes with the visit of table topper's Harlow Town
Tuesday 10th February
BRENTWOOD TOWN v DEREHAM TOWN
Two play off rivals go head to head at The Arena
Saturday 14th February
HARLOW TOWN v WROXHAM
The Hawks v The Yachtsman. 1st v 3rd in the table. Which team will have a night to celebrate on Valentines Day
Tuesday 24th February
BRENTWOOD TOWN v NEEDHAM MARKET
Harlow fans will be looking for their local rival's to do them a favour and beat The Marketmen to put a dent in their title ambitions.
The biggest game of the season could be on Saturday 18th April when a massive crowd should be at Bloomfields when Needham Market welcome Harlow Town in what could be a winner takes all promotion match and title winning match. This is the penultimate weekend of the season.
Betvictor currently rate Needham Market at 8/11 favourites for the title with Harlow Town at evens. The rest of the division is at 20/1 and over.