UPDATE ON THE BIG PREMIER LEAGUE RELEGATION BATTLE

All football fans have seen that the race to beat the drop from the Premier League is hotting up with the transfer window's closure on the horizon. Since the cold end wrote on New Years Eve there has been some surprise results as teams battle to beat the drop. Wolverhampton Wanderers beating Chelsea for instance was one victory that was unexpected.

Here the cold end presents a table of the teams who have beaten the drop since the formation of the Premier League to see if it gives us any clues as to who is staying up and who is going down??

                          POS    P  W  D  L  GF GA GD  PTS ARB    NYP
1992/93  Oldham Athletic  19/22  42 13 10 19 63 74 -11 49  GD +2  21/22r
1993/94  Ipswich Town     19/22  42 9  16 17 35 58 -23 43  1      22/22r   
*1994/95 Aston Villa      18/22  42 11 15 16 51 56 - 5 48  3      4/20 
1995/96  Southampton      17/20  38 9  11 18 34 52 -18 38  GD +7  16/20
1996/97  Coventry City    17/20  38 9  14 15 38 54 -16 41  1      11/20
1997/98  Everton          17/20  38 9  13 16 41 56 -15 40  GD +5  14/20
1998/99  Southampton      17/20  38 11 8  19 37 58 -21 41  5      15/20
1999/00  Bradford City    17/20  38 9  9  20 38 68 -30 36  3      20/20r
2000/01  Derby County     17/20  38 10 12 16 37 59 -22 42  8      19/20r
2001/02  Sunderland       17/20  38 10 10 18 29 49 -20 40  4      20/20r
2002/03  Bolton Wanderers 17/20  38 10 14 14 41 51 -10 44  2      8/20
2003/04  Everton          17/20  38 9  12 17 35 57 -22 39  6      4/20
2004/05  WBA              17/20  38 6  16 16 36 61 -25 34  1      19/20r 
2005/06  Portsmouth       17/20  38 10 8  20 37 62 -25 38  4      9/20
2006/07  Wigan Athletic   17/20  38 10 8  20 37 59 -22 38  GD +1  14/20
2007/08  Fulham           17/20  38 8  12 18 38 60 -22 36  GD +3  7/20
2008/09  Hull City        17/20  38 8  11 19 39 64 -25 35  1      19/20r 
2009/10  West Ham United  17/20  38 8  11 19 47 66 -19 35  5      ????

*denotes 4 teams relegated.
ARB denotes avoided relegation by pts or goal difference as shown. 
NYP denotes 'next year's position' where 'r' denotes relegation. 

The average points needed to stay up since England's top division was reorganised to 20 clubs for the 95/96 season is 36.78 (we'll round it up to 37 for argument's sake) with most manager's and supporters looking at the golden mark of 40 points to more or less guarantee safety although beware there are a number of seasons where clubs with 40+ points have gone down.

The average number of wins is 8.92 (rounded up to 9) although for the last three season's eight wins out of 38 games has kept teams up and West Bromwich Albion stayed up with only six wins in 2004/05.

So here for the first time is the cold end relegation league...the higher up the league table the more in danger of relegation the team is??? Table based on 40 points being the golden mark to avoid relegation and on the current bottom eleven of the Premier League.

                    P  W D  L   GD PTS PN  PLTPF %NOW  %NEED %LAST6
1. West Ham United  23 4 8  11 -19 20  20  45    28.98 44.44 44.44
2. Wolverhampton W  22 6 3  13 -14 21  19  48    31.81 39.58 50.00
3. Wigan Athletic   22 4 10 8  -15 22  18  48    33.33 37.50 38.88
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4. Aston Villa      22 5 7  10 -15 22  18  48    33.33 37.50 27.77
5. Birmingham City  21 4 11 6  -5  23  17  51    36.51 33.33 33.33
6. Fulham           22 4 11 7  -2  23  17  48    34.84 35.42 44.44
7. West Brom Albion 22 7 4  11 -12 25  15  48    37.87 31.25 16.66
8. Liverpool        22 7 5  10 -4  26  14  48    39.39 29.17 22.22
9. Everton          22 5 11 6  -2  26  14  48    39.39 29.17 50.00
10.Blackburn Rov    23 8 4  11 -8  28  12  45    40.58 26.67 38.89
11.Blackpool        21 8 4  9  -5  28  12  51    44.44 23.53 50.00

PN denotes 'points needed' to get to 40 pts 
PLTPF deontes 'points left to play for' 
%now denotes percentage of points won from games played so far 
%need denotes percentage of points needed from remaining games
%last 6 denotes percetnage of points gained in last six games

The table shows that if the current bottom three keep up their form over the last six league games they have a fighting chance of staying up with WBA on 16.66% the lowest rated side over the last six games. Aside from their victory versus Blackpool Roberto Di Matteo's side seem to be in free fall towards a relegation battle at the business end of the season.
As has been written at great length elsewhere Blackpool were many people's favourites to go down. The Seasiders realistically need 4 more wins from their remaining 17 games to stay up which will be a unbelievable achievement for Ian Holloway and his squad. He gets the cold end's vote for manager of the year whatever happens!!!

A fact for West Ham United fans to ponder is that 7 of the 17 clubs to escape relegation by finishing just above the drop zone since the Premier League was formed have gone down the following season. West Ham United finished in that position last season.

Only time will tell which teams will still be travelling to Old Trafford and White Hart Lane amongst other grounds next season??