Wednesday 4 January 2012

NEW YEAR LEAGUE TABLE-FEST - THE RACE FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP AND PLAY OFFS!!

With the New Year of 2012 now into it's fourth day the cold end though it would be good to look at Enfield Town's Ryman Division One (North) table in detail to see who's in with a shout of the title or play-offs and what teams are looking at the security of mid-table mediocrity.  Firstly, we need to look at the records of the previous season's champions and fifth placed sides which is the last place for sides to qualify for the play-offs for those not in the know. The records go back to 2006/07 when the Ryman Division One (North) was created.

CHAMPIONS 
                            P  W  D L    GF  GA  GD PTS    WIN%  LOSS% PPG  
2006/07 AFC HORNCHURCH      42 32 7 3    96  27 +69 103    76.19  7.14 2.45
2007/08 DARTFORD            42 27 8 7    107 42 +65 89     64.29 16.67 2.12
2008/09 AVELEY              42 29 9 4    81  40 +41 96     69.04  9.53 2.29
2009/10 LOWESTOFT TOWN      42 32 5 5    115 37 +78 101    76.19 11.90 2.40
2010/11 EAST THURROCK UTD   40 30 5 5    92  38 +54 85     75.00 12.50 2.38
AVERAGE -                           4.75*           97.25* 72.14 11.55 2.33 
* denotes based on 42 game seasons from 2006 to 2010.  

FIFTH PLACE                
                            P  W  D  L    GF  GA  GD PTS    WIN%  LOSS% PPG 
2006/07 AFC SUDBURY         42 19 13 10   67  41 +26 70     45.24 23.81 1.67 
2007/08 CANVEY ISLAND       42 23 10 9    82  39 +43 79     54.76 21.43 1.88 
2008/09 CONCORD RANGERS     42 23 10 9    83  34 +49 79     54.76 21.43 1.88 
2009/10 EAST THURROCK UTD   42 23 8  11   102 59 +43 72     54.76 26.19 1.71 
2010/11 BRENTWOOD TOWN      40 20 9  11   75  55 +20 69     50.00 27.50 1.73
AVERAGE -                            9.75*           75*    51.90 24.07 1.77 
* denotes based on 42 games seasons from 2006 to 2010 
 

I have based the average losses and points totals on the 42 game seasons so not to confuse things. Only forty league games were played last season due to the demise of Leyton. Looking at the statistics it looks as if to be champions teams must aim for losing no more than 5 games and for a total of around 98 points. The average total points is somewhat inflated with the impressive hauls of AFC Hornchurch and Lowestoft Town. It comes down to 90 points based on East Thurrock United, Dartford and Aveley's totals.

NO TEAM WITH TWELVE OR MORE DEFEATS HAS NOT QUALIFIED FOR THE PLAY-OFFS SINCE THE RYMAN DIVISION ONE (NORTH) WAS FORMED IN 2006/07

To qualify for the play offs teams should aim for no more than 10 defeats with a points total of 75. It's a fact that teams with twelve or more defeats haven't qualified for the play-offs since 2006/07. Five teams (25%) have qualified with 11 defeats (Maldon Town and Enfield Town 2006/07, East Thurrock United 2009/10 and Harlow Town & Brentwood Town 2010/11). Each season is different but on those figures teams such as current thirteenth placed Chatham Town (on 11 defeats so far) can't afford to lose another game all season should they wish to make a late run to qualify for the play-offs.

RYMAN LEAGUE DIVISION ONE (NORTH) CURRENT TABLE
Featuring win%, loss% and points per game
                     P  W  WIN%  L  LOSS%  PTS  P.P.G  VERDICT
1. LEISTON           23 15 65.22 4  17.39  49   2.13   TITLE CHALLENGERS   
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. ENFIELD TOWN      24 14 58.33 4  16.67  48   2.00   TITLE CHALLENGERS
3. NEEDHAM MARKET    24 13 54.16 6  25.00  44   1.83   TITLE CHALLENGERS
4. GRAYS ATHLETIC*   23 14 60.87 5  21.74  43   1.87   TITLE CHALLENGERS  
5. AFC SUDBURY       24 12 50.00 6  25.00  42   1.75   COULD CRASH THE TITLE RACE?? 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. TILBURY           23 11 47.83 5  21.74  40   1.74   PLAY OFF CONTENDERS
7. BRENTWOOD TOWN    24 11 45.83 7  29.17  39   1.63   CAN ONLY AFFORD A FEW MORE DEFEATS
8. HARLOW TOWN       23 11 47.83 6  26.09  39   1.70   NEED A RUN OF WINS - PLAY OFF CONTENDERS 
9. HEYBRIDGE SWIFTS  24 10 41.67 9  37.50  35   1.46   LOST 9 GAMES ALREADY - DIFFICULT TO REACH PLAY OFFS
10.THAMESMEAD TOWN   22 10 45.45 7  31.82  35   1.59   NEED TO WIN THEIR 2 GAMES IN HAND
11.POTTERS BAR TOWN  24 10 41.67 10 41.67  34   1.42   10 DEFEATS - MID TABLE FINISH
12.WALTHAM ABBEY     23 10 43.48 10 43.48  33   1.43   10 DEFEATS - MID TABLE FINISH
13.CHATHAM TOWN      24 10 41.67 11 45.83  33   1.38   11 DEFEATS - MID TABLE FINISH    
14.ROMFORD           23  8 34.78 7  30.43  32   1.39   DRAWN TOO MANY GAMES 
15.REDBRIDGE         20  8 40.00 7  35.00  29   1.45   LOST 7 OF 20 (35%) - NEED TO GO ON A WINNING RUN   
16.WALTHAM FOREST    22  7 31.82 10 45.45  26   1.18   FALLEN AWAY AFTER A GOOD START 
17.MALDON & TIPTREE  22  6 27.27 11 50.00  23   1.04   LOST TOO MANY GAMES 
18.SOHAM TOWN RANG   24  5 22.73 11 45.83  23   0.96   LOST TOO MANY GAMES 
19.CHESHUNT          24  5 20.82 11 45.83  23   0.96   LOST TOO MANY GAMES  
20.GREAT WAKERING    21  3 12.50 16 76.19  14   0.67   WORST LOST % IN THE TABLE - WILL IMPROVE WITH NEW MANAGER  
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21.WARE              24  2  8.33 17 58.33  11   0.46   MONDAY'S WIN PUTS THEM IN TOUCH WITH GWR
22.ILFORD            22  1  4.55 16 72.72   8   0.36   TRADITIONALLY IMPROVE IN NEW YEAR - NEED BIG PUSH TO FINISH 20th OR ABOVE  

RED denotes best figures 
* denotes Grays Athletic deducted 3 points - they would be on 2.00 p.p.g

Looking at the above table it looks as if the eventual title winners will come from the top four or maybe AFC Sudbury. Grays Athletic's three point deduction could be highly important in a bad way for Hakan Hayrettin's side at the end of the season. Needham's drop in form since the injury to their talismanic striker Sam Newson could mean they end up in the play offs and not first place - the cold end says discount them at your peril!

Of the teams looking at gate crashing the top five Tilbury, Brentwood Town and Harlow Town look in the best position. Heybridge Swifts have lost 9 games (37.50%) which will mean they can only really afford to lose a maximum of 2 or at a push 3 matches in their remaining eighteen games. Not impossible but a tough ask. Behind the Swifts are Thamesmead Town who, if they win their game(s) in hand over the teams above them, could make a run for the play-offs.

THE TOP FIVE TABLE 
games between the current top five 
                    HOME           AWAY           TOTAL 
                    P W D L GF GA  P W D L GF GA  P W D L GF GA GD PTS MAX  WIN%  P.P.G 
1. LEISTON          3 1 2 0  5  4  2 1 0 1  5  1  5 2 2 1 10  5 +5   8 (15) 40.00 1.60
2. ENFIELD TOWN     2 1 1 0  4  3  2 1 0 1  3  3  4 2 1 1  7  6 +4   7 (12) 50.00 1.75 
3. NEEDHAM MARKET   3 2 0 1  4  7  2 0 1 1  2  3  5 2 1 2  6 10 -4   7 (15) 40.00 1.40
4. GRAYS ATHELTIC   2 2 0 0  5  0  3 0 1 2  4  6  5 2 1 2  9  6 +3   4*(15) 40.00 0.80 1.40*
5. AFC SUDBURY      2 1 0 1  2  2  3 0 1 2  2  7  5 1 1 3  4  9 -5   4 (15) 20.00 0.80

RED denotes best figures

To win the title you have to have good results against the other teams up the top of the league and although Leiston top this table with eight points it's Town who currently have the best record with 7 points from 12 on offer with a 50% win ratio and a p.p.g of 1.75. Town have four games left against the current top five with the other sides all on three left. The remaining games between the title challengers could be pivotal as to who finishes top.

GAMES LEFT BETWEEN THE CURRENT TOP FIVE 

                LEISTON        ENFIELD TOWN    NEEDHAM MARKET  GRAYS ATHLETIC  AFC SUDBURY 
Sat 14th Jan    AFC Sudbury    -               -               -               LEISTON 
Sat 11th Feb    -              -               Grays Athletic  NEEDHAM MARKET  -
Sat 3rd  Mar    -              AFC SUDBURY     -               -               Enfield Town
Sat 31st Mar    -              -               -               AFC Sudbury     Grays Athletic 
Sat 7th  Apr    -              NEEDHAM MARKET  Enfield Town    -               -
Mon 9th  Apr    NEEDHAM MARKET -               Leiston         -               - 
Sat 21st Apr    ENFIELD TOWN   LEISTON         -               -               -
Sat 28th Apr    -              Grays Athletic  -               ENFIELD TOWN    -  

Enfield Town's final six games are as tough as they come as we face Harlow Town, Waltham Abbey and Leiston at the Queen Elizabeth Stadium along with trips to Needham Market, Cheshunt and on the final day of the season to Grays Athletic.

TOP FIVE SCORING TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE 
                    gls   pos
1. NEEDHAM MARKET   61    3rd
2. ENFIELD TOWN     54    2nd
3. WALTHAM ABBEY    52    12th 
4. LEISTON          51    1st 
5. GRAYS ATHLETIC   48    4th

TOP FIVE DEFENCES IN THE LEAGUE
                  let in pos 
1. BRENTWOOD TOWN 19     7th 
2. LEISTON        22     1st 
3. HARLOW TOWN    23     8th
4. GRAYS ATHLETIC 24     4th
5. NEEDHAM MARKET 28     3rd 

TOP FIVE WORST SCORING TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE 
                         gls  pos
1. WARE                  18  21st 
2. ILFORD                19  22nd 
3. CHESHUNT              22  19th 
4. GREAT WAKERING ROVERS 26  20th 
5= AFC SUDBURY           32  5th
5= CHATHAM TOWN          32  13th 
5= MALDON AND TIPTREE    32  17th
5= SOHAM TOWN            32  18th

TOP FIVE WORST DEFENCES IN THE LEAGUE
                         let in   pos  
1. GREAT WAKERING ROVERS 62       20th 
2. WALTHAM ABBEY         49       12th
3= POTTERS BAR TOWN      48       11th
3= SOHAM TOWN RANGERS    48       18th
3= WARE                  48       21st

Its no surprise to see bottom side's Ilford and Ware as the worst scoring teams in the table currently on 18 and 19 goals respectively. Waltham Abbey makes an appearance in the worst defence and best attackers table scoring 52 goals but letting in 49.

One thing that is certain is that the title run in over the next few months is going to be a very exciting one with up to five teams involved. There is some impressive football being played not just in the Ryman League but in all the non league divisions across the country. I highly recommend a visit to your local club. Great value for money.

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